• Dennis McCaslin

Hazardous Weather Outlook: April 20, 2022




Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022


Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-528 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...A narrow corridor across eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 6 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Parts of eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Parts of eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 6 pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Parts of eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 6 pm.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Mainly the higher elevations of southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Mid Evening.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Western Osage and Pawnee Counties.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms are attempting to develop near the Highway
75 corridor ahead of a dryline at this time. These storms have
struggled to gain intensity thus far, but there remains a chance
that a storm or two may become better established through early
this evening. If a storm can become established, significant
severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes. The main threat will be in a rather narrow
corridor of eastern Oklahoma where instability is the greatest.
Once storms move east of the instability axis, rapid weakening
will likely occur as they approach far eastern Oklahoma.

Later tonight, additional storms may develop across parts of far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a cold front pushes
south into the area. An isolated strong to marginally severe
storm will be possible, with marginally severe hail being the main
threat at that time.

Hot temperatures and lower humidity values behind the dryline
across western Osage and western Pawnee counties will keep fire
weather concerns heightened in those areas until around sunset.

South winds may gust to 30 to 40 miles an hour at times overnight
over the higher terrain areas of southeast Oklahoma as a strong
low level jet develops.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...
           High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...
           High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.


A slight chance of thunderstorms will continue across northeast
Oklahoma on Thursday, however the greater focus for storms will
be farther west and north of the local region. Breezy southerly
winds will continue and help maintain a risk of grassland fires
across parts of Osage and Pawnee counties.

Thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday with a risk of
strong to severe storms. A cold front will move slowly across
the region Saturday night through Sunday with an increasing
risk of locally heavy rainfall and flooding potential.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.



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